Wikipedia arbitrage betting
An imbalanced book may arise since there is no way for a bookmaker to know the true probabilities for the outcome of competitions left to human effort or to predict the bets that will be attracted from others by fixed odds compiled on the basis personal view and knowledge.
With the advent of Internet and bet exchange betting, the possibility of fixed-odds arbitrage actions and Dutch books against bookmakers and exchanges has expanded significantly. Betting exchanges in particular act like a stock exchange , allowing the odds to be set in the course of trading between individual bettors, usually leading to quoted odds that are reasonably close to the "true odds.
However, if someone offered odds of 10 to 1 that a card chosen at random from a regular 52 card deck would be the ace of spades, one would be getting "the worst of it" because the chance is only 1 in 52 that the ace will be chosen. Player A wins if the dice add up to 12, of which there is only one possible case. Player B wins if the dice fall in any other combination, of which there are 35 possibilities. Laying odds[ edit ] When making a bet in which one must put more at risk than one can win, one is laying the odds.
Rational bettors will do so only if the actual chances of an adverse outcome are low enough that the expected outcome even after deduction of taxes and any transaction costs is favorable to the person placing the bet. Laying odds is reflected in the colloquial expression "[I would] dollars to doughnuts " — with which the speaker is expressing a willingness to risk losing something of value in exchange for something worthless, because winning that bet is a certainty.
Bookmakers sell bets based on the odds of a specific outcome, but lay betting allows the bettor in some English-speaking countries, the "punter" to reverse roles with the bookmaker, using odds to sell the opposite outcome to the bookmaker.
In this context, "lay" is used in the sense of "layman", i. The term "fractional odds" is something of a misnomer, especially when visually reinforced by using a slash as opposed to, e. This fraction may be derived by subtracting 1 from the reciprocal of the chances of winning; for any odds longer than "even money," this fraction will be an improper one.
Regression analysis[ edit ] Regression analysis is a type of statistical technique used to determine the important factors that affect the outcome of the event. In the case of sports betting this is usually done with multivariate linear regression. Because sports events are very complicated and there are many factors it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be able to accurately identify each variable that affects the outcome of the game.
Also, regression analysis assigns a "weight" to each factors that identifies how much it affects the outcome of the event. Regression analysis has become so sophisticated that some gamblers actually perform it as a full-time job. The results determined that the most important aspect to winning the game was passing efficiency. Simply put, it is being able to identify the difference between something causing an event and something happening because of an event.
Regression analysis also falls short in certain cases which are more difficult to model. For instance, in football, 3 or 7 points are typically scored at a time, so bets involving a final score frequently include combinations of these two numbers. However, a simple linear regression will not accurately model this.
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