Distressed investing 2022 silverado
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The leveraged loan distress ratio is now at 1. Default rates for both high yield and leveraged loans highlight the difficulties facing distressed investors in The rating agency's current best-case scenario ;projects the rate falling to 1. Projections by Barclays, in a report by Bradley Rogoff, Scott Schachter and Jeff Darfus, were slightly ahead of Ratings' projections, with default rates through projected at 2.
The Barclays team translates that rate into 1. The Barclays report cites, among other things, "a supportive macro environment," improving corporate fundamentals that are nearing pre-pandemic levels, excess liquidity and a debt maturity wall that has been pushed out by refinancings for its positive view of defaults. Morgan Stanley's default rate outlook comes in a bit lower than Barclays.
The report's authors "remain encouraged by corporate balance sheet fundamentals in developed market credit," adding that they do not expect the market disturbances in Asia to take on "a systemic dimension. Given the present distress ratios and default rate projections, distressed investors could be forgiven for anticipating a quiet year ahead. Restructuring expert and Houlihan Lokey Managing Director Saul Burian said in a recent interview with LCD that he perceives that the distressed community was surprised by how quickly the US corporate operating environment recovered from the pandemic's impact and how wide-open financial markets were in Burian added that "there is still a lot of exuberance and a lot of capital that are combining to dampen distressed opportunities.
Houlihan Lokey's Burian notes that danger lurks, saying that labor costs are rising, inflation is driving up raw material costs and those who are not working are spending less. Burian sees a resultant risk in lower consumer spending exacerbating lower operating margins that are being hurt by higher costs, noting that these are all ingredients for an economic slowdown and a general decline in corporate earnings, as well as key elements in tightening debt market liquidity.
Although the adjustments were small and the numbers still represent solid economic growth, the trend is not a friend to the bulls. Morgan Stanley, in its outlook piece, warned that the market "appears to be pricing in record-low default rates for longer," cautioning that "the bar for negative surprises is very low. At a distressed investing conference held in New York City in November put on by Beard Group, Jeff Aronson, co-founder and managing principal of Centerbridge Partners, said that "one of the biggest concerns in is if the Fed fell behind the curve," namely if the US Federal Reserve moved interest rates too slowly or too quickly, creating a shock to the US economy.
Things to do Despite the risks, the US economy and markets seem to be on a path to continue producing a dearth of distressed situations for investors. But to restructuring expert Burian and others, there will still be things to do. Burian pointed out that through the depths of the pandemic, many companies raised capital with two-to-four-year life spans. Those bills are coming due starting in the spring of Burian noted, for instance, the possible negative impact that shipping delays and increased costs may be having on retail and supplier top and bottom lines.
One experienced distressed sell-side player said he is seeing troubled-company investors now looking closely at private debt. Long-time distressed asset manager Oaktree Capital may have hinted at its interest in this area when it rebranded its Distressed Debt platform as the Opportunistic Credit platform, broadcasting its wider latitude to invest in assets beyond those troubled or bankrupt. The sell-sider also sees intense focus by distressed investors on rescue financings and debtor-in-possession lending, places they plan to put their capital in
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