Forex day trading patterns probabilities
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What I Skipped The beginning of the book was the standard introduction to currency trading. I did skim a couple of the sections and this book does a good job of explaining the fundamental concepts in a clear and well-structured way. If you are a beginner, then I certainly recommend reading this introductory information to get up to speed. I also skipped his section on Fibonacci retracements.
It does work for some traders , but I find Fibos a little too arbitrary for my taste. Maybe I will learn to appreciate them one day, but for now, I ignore them. There are also a couple of short-term trading strategies that I skipped over because they don't fit my personality. But other than that, I actually read through many sections several times and took notes in Evernote. That was one of my favorite trading lessons in the psychology section of this book.
He tells a story of two coworkers that were rooting against him after a winning streak. They were really happy when the hot streak came to an end and Ed started losing. When it was all said and done however, the joke was on them. They ended up working in a restaurant and teaching high school, while Ed is still trading.
So while there might not actually be such a thing as karma, having negative thoughts about others ultimately contaminates your own psychology and leads you to make major mistakes. But if you are trading full-time and you really do want to teach high school, then this is something you should try. I know that I'm a much better swing trader than a day trader. So I only concentrated on the swing strategies in this book. Luckily, they are a few to choose from.
About Ed's Trading Methods Now we come to the big question…are his trading strategies any good? Remember that a trading system alone does not make a good trader. Ed emphasizes this in the book. You could have the best trading system in the world and still lose money.
Also avoid the Trading Silodrome and don't jump to a new trading system just because you want to try something different. With that PSA out of the way, if you do have room in your trading quiver for a new strategy, then there are two reasons why you should read this book and start testing his strategies.
First, the systems that he gives you in this book are complete systems. He doesn't hold anything back. Some books are simply lead generators to upsell a more expensive course. That is not the case with this book, you get the complete systems. Second, the methods are simple and explained very clearly. This may seem like it is easy to do, but you will be surprised how much some authors can complicate even the simplest trading system.
And all you need to know are these 6 chart patterns. In an uptrend, the market will continually make higher highs and higher lows. And these higher lows can sometimes form the Bull Flag. The Bull Flag is essentially a pullback in an uptrend. And they signify that the market is taking a rest before it continues its move upwards.
And most of the time, it forms below both the EMAs. In a downtrend, a market will form lower lows and lower highs. However, when the market struggles to make a significantly lower low and forms a Double Bottom, this is a sign that the market has possibly exhausted its downward move and is about to reverse. The Double Bottom can be a powerful reversal pattern when traded properly.
V-Bottoms can happen anytime in an uptrend, downtrend and even in a sideways market. They generally form when the market has a sudden push to the downside and creates long candlestick bars, followed by a big push to the upside again, thus creating the V-shape bottom.
While V-Bottoms can be very lucrative when you catch it, you do not want to get into every V-Bottom trade. Instead, we only want to trade the ones that are formed because of a prior support level. In a downtrend, the market will continually make lower lows and lower highs.
And these lower highs can sometimes form the Bear Flag. Similar to the Bull Flag, the Bear Flag is a pullback in a downtrend. And they signify that the market is taking a rest before it continues its move downwards. And most of the time, it forms above both the EMAs. In an uptrend, a market will form higher highs and higher lows.
However, when the market struggles to make a significantly higher high and forms a Double Top, this is a sign that the market has possibly exhausted its move upwards and is about to reverse down. Likewise, the Double Top can be a powerful reversal pattern when traded properly.
Similarly, V-Tops can happen anytime in an uptrend, downtrend and even in a sideways market. They generally form when the market has a sudden push to the upside and creates long candlestick bars, followed by a big push to the downside, thus creating the inverse V-shape. And likewise, you do not want to trade every V-Top, but only the ones that are formed because of a prior resistance level.
And when these candlesticks combine, they form chart patterns that give us an idea of the direction on where the market might be going. Some traders solely rely on candlestick patterns to enter into a trade. While some traders solely on chart patterns to enter into a trade. But what happens if you combine both the candlestick patterns and chart patterns to get into a trade? When trading, we never solely enter on any individual candlestick pattern.
We want to see the whole context of how the candlestick pattern is formed. Bullish Candlestick Patterns with Bullish Chart Patterns When you combine the 3 bullish candlestick patterns with the 3 bullish chart patterns, we get a total of 9 bullish price action patterns. You want to memorize the following images below so you know exactly what to look out for when you open your charts. But when you combine them with a Bullish Candlestick Pattern, it will increase the probability of your trade working out.
Some of the best Bull Flags happen when you have the bullish candlestick pattern forming on the EMAs. This is a further sign of bullishness because the EMAs act as a dynamic support. So if you see either of the bullish candlestick patterns appear with a Bull Flag, and is formed on the EMAs, then that is a high probability price action pattern.
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But other than that, I actually read through many sections several times and took notes in Evernote. That was one of my favorite trading lessons in the psychology section of this book. He tells a story of two coworkers that were rooting against him after a winning streak.
They were really happy when the hot streak came to an end and Ed started losing. When it was all said and done however, the joke was on them. They ended up working in a restaurant and teaching high school, while Ed is still trading. So while there might not actually be such a thing as karma, having negative thoughts about others ultimately contaminates your own psychology and leads you to make major mistakes. But if you are trading full-time and you really do want to teach high school, then this is something you should try.
I know that I'm a much better swing trader than a day trader. So I only concentrated on the swing strategies in this book. Luckily, they are a few to choose from. About Ed's Trading Methods Now we come to the big question…are his trading strategies any good? Remember that a trading system alone does not make a good trader. Ed emphasizes this in the book. You could have the best trading system in the world and still lose money.
Also avoid the Trading Silodrome and don't jump to a new trading system just because you want to try something different. With that PSA out of the way, if you do have room in your trading quiver for a new strategy, then there are two reasons why you should read this book and start testing his strategies.
First, the systems that he gives you in this book are complete systems. He doesn't hold anything back. Some books are simply lead generators to upsell a more expensive course. That is not the case with this book, you get the complete systems. Second, the methods are simple and explained very clearly. This may seem like it is easy to do, but you will be surprised how much some authors can complicate even the simplest trading system.
The method that appealed to me the most was the Fx-Ed Trend Technique and that is what I'm currently testing. Before I move on to another system in this book, I'm going to get comfortable with this method first though. So to come back to the question at the beginning of this section, these methods are only going to be as good as you make them. Ed lays out everything you need to get started. He uses standard indicators and measuring tools. It is up to you learn them, test them and figure out if they work with your personality.
Rockstars Make Good Traders and authors One interesting thing that I learned about Ed from this book is that he used to be a rockstar…literally. Similar to the Bull Flag, the Bear Flag is a pullback in a downtrend. And they signify that the market is taking a rest before it continues its move downwards. And most of the time, it forms above both the EMAs. In an uptrend, a market will form higher highs and higher lows. However, when the market struggles to make a significantly higher high and forms a Double Top, this is a sign that the market has possibly exhausted its move upwards and is about to reverse down.
Likewise, the Double Top can be a powerful reversal pattern when traded properly. Similarly, V-Tops can happen anytime in an uptrend, downtrend and even in a sideways market. They generally form when the market has a sudden push to the upside and creates long candlestick bars, followed by a big push to the downside, thus creating the inverse V-shape. And likewise, you do not want to trade every V-Top, but only the ones that are formed because of a prior resistance level.
And when these candlesticks combine, they form chart patterns that give us an idea of the direction on where the market might be going. Some traders solely rely on candlestick patterns to enter into a trade. While some traders solely on chart patterns to enter into a trade. But what happens if you combine both the candlestick patterns and chart patterns to get into a trade? When trading, we never solely enter on any individual candlestick pattern.
We want to see the whole context of how the candlestick pattern is formed. Bullish Candlestick Patterns with Bullish Chart Patterns When you combine the 3 bullish candlestick patterns with the 3 bullish chart patterns, we get a total of 9 bullish price action patterns. You want to memorize the following images below so you know exactly what to look out for when you open your charts. But when you combine them with a Bullish Candlestick Pattern, it will increase the probability of your trade working out.
Some of the best Bull Flags happen when you have the bullish candlestick pattern forming on the EMAs. This is a further sign of bullishness because the EMAs act as a dynamic support. So if you see either of the bullish candlestick patterns appear with a Bull Flag, and is formed on the EMAs, then that is a high probability price action pattern. Ideally, we want the bullish candlestick pattern breaking the low of the first bottom, and then closing above it.
So for example, if the first bottom has a low of This is a very bullish signal. This signifies that the previous swing low has held as a strong support level, and hence it formed a bullish candlestick pattern and closed above that support level. Bearish Candlestick Patterns with Bearish Chart Patterns Similar to the bullish price action patterns, there are also 9 bearish price action patterns. They are the exact opposite of the bullish price action patterns so you want to memorize them as well.
Similarly to the Bull Flag, we want to look for bearish candlestick patterns to appear on either the EMAs as that would signify that the EMAs have held as a dynamic resistance. The aggressive entry can get you a better risk-to-reward ratio but at the risk of getting stopped out more often.
Whereas the more conservative entry will have less stop-outs, but the risk-to-reward ratio may not be as good. So this is something you want to balance as a trader to see which makes more sense for your trading style. Similarly to the Double Bottom, you can use stochastic divergence to further increase the chances of this price action pattern working out.
This is key because if you trade a V-Top that has no previous resistance level and just forms out of the blue, the probability of it working out will not be as high. And again, an ideal V-Top trade setup is when the bearish candlestick pattern breaks above a previous swing high, then comes back down to close below it.
Conclusion To sum things up, price action is the study of price movement from the buying and selling over time. This price action forms the candlestick patterns, and these candlestick patterns form chart patterns.
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