1-2-3 forex secret
The indicators that my client had chosen, along with the decision logic, were not profitable. Here are the results of running the program over the M15 window for operations: Note that the balance the blue line finishes below its starting point.
This is known as parameter optimization. I did some rough testing to try to infer the significance of the external parameters on the return ratio and arrived at this: Cleaned up, it looks like this: You may think, as I did, that you should use parameter A. Specifically, note the unpredictability of parameter A: For small error values, its return changes dramatically.
In other words, parameter A is very likely to overpredict future results since any uncertainty—any shift at all—will result in worse performance. But indeed, the future is uncertain! And so the return of parameter A is also uncertain. The best choice, in fact, is to rely on unpredictability.
Often, a parameter with a lower maximum return but superior predictability less fluctuation will be preferable to a parameter with high return but poor predictability. As such, you must acknowledge this unpredictability in your forex predictions.
It is a mistake to assume you know how the market is going to perform based on past data. This does not necessarily mean we should use parameter B because even the lower returns of parameter A perform better than the returns of parameter B; optimizing parameters can result in tests that overstate likely future results, and such thinking is not obvious.
A descending triangle is the mirror image. This leads to the formation of double tops and bottoms and also triple tops and bottoms. A double bottom looks like a W and a triple bottom looks like a W on speed, with an extra leg. Please see the following chart. Several analysts commented on it at the time, noting that once the highest point in the double W was surpassed, we could expect an upside breakout.
Note that after the breakout 1 , the price pulled back below the confirmation line 2. A pullback here is very common. You have to be brave to sit it out. Chances are very few people trade on the weekly chart but it is always useful to know that after the triple bottom was identified, a bias was forming for an upside breakout.
See the next chart Turkish lira. The head is always higher than the first shoulder, which is a test and a successful one of a previous high. However, the second shoulder marks the failure to match the intermediate high. The second shoulder does not match the first shoulder, either.


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