# Inflationary expectations investopedia forex

**ENGLAND ITALY RUGBY BETTING**

If prices rise faster than their target, central banks tighten monetary policy by increasing interest rates or other hawkish policies. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, curtailing both consumption and investment, both of which rely heavily on credit.

Likewise, if inflation falls and economic output declines, the central bank will lower interest rates and make borrowing cheaper, along with several other possible expansionary policy tools. As a strategy, inflation targeting views the primary goal of the central bank as maintaining price stability. All of the tools of monetary policy that a central bank has, including open market operations and discount lending, can be employed in a general strategy of inflation targeting.

Inflation targeting can be contrasted to strategies of central banks aimed at other measures of economic performance as their primary goals, such as targeting currency exchange rates , the unemployment rate, or the rate of nominal Gross Domestic Product GDP growth. How Central Banks Influence the Money Supply Contemporary governments and central banks rarely ever print and distribute physical money to influence the money supply , instead relying on other controls such as interest rates for interbank lending.

There are several reasons for this, but the two largest are: 1 new financial instruments, electronic account balances and other changes in the way individuals hold money make basic monetary controls less predictable; and 2 history has produced more than a handful of money-printing disasters that have led to hyperinflation and mass recession. The U. Federal Reserve switched from controlling actual monetary aggregates , or number of bills in circulation, to implementing changes in key interest rates, which has sometimes been called the "price of money.

When interest rates rise, for example, savers can earn more on their demand deposit accounts and are more likely to delay present consumption for future consumption. Conversely, it is more expensive to borrow money, which discourages lending. Since lending in a modern fractional reserve banking system actually creates "new" money, discouraging lending slows the rate of monetary growth and inflation. The opposite is true if interest rates are lowered; saving is less attractive, borrowing is cheaper, and spending is likely to increase, etc.

Increasing and Decreasing Demand In short, central banks manipulate interest rates to either increase or decrease the present demand for goods and services, the levels of economic productivity, the impact of the banking money multiplier and inflation. However, many of the impacts of monetary policy are delayed and difficult to evaluate. Additionally, economic participants are becoming increasingly sensitive to monetary policy signals and their expectations about the future.

There are some ways in which the Federal Reserve controls the money stock; it participates in what is called "open market operations," by which federal banks purchase and sell government bonds. Buying bonds injects new dollars into the economy, while selling bonds drains dollars out of circulation.

Another limitation of the theory is that many factors impact short-term and long-term bond yields. The Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates up or down, which impacts bond yields, including short-term bonds. However, long-term yields might be less affected because many other factors impact long-term yields, including inflation and economic growth expectations. As a result, the expectations theory does not consider the outside forces and fundamental macroeconomic factors that drive interest rates and, ultimately, bond yields.

Expectations Theory Versus Preferred Habitat Theory The preferred habitat theory takes the expectations theory one step further. The theory states that investors have a preference for short-term bonds over long-term bonds unless the latter pay a risk premium. In other words, if investors are going to hold onto a long-term bond, they want to be compensated with a higher yield to justify the risk of holding the investment until maturity. The preferred habitat theory can help explain, in part, why longer-term bonds typically pay out a higher interest rate than two shorter-term bonds that, when added together, result in the same maturity.

When comparing the preferred habitat theory to the expectations theory, the difference is that the former assumes investors are concerned with maturity as well as yield. In contrast, the expectations theory assumes that investors are only concerned with yield. Article Sources Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts.

We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate.

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Using two- or ten-year issues would give you the expectation, or outlook, for those times. This difference is often called the "break-even" inflation rate. The math for the inflation rate to break even is shown below. If you want to know what T yields might look like in the future, given an expected inflation rate, you can tweak the math. The same could apply if you want to know about TIPS yields with a given breakeven inflation rate.

Using this method, you can easily find the market's outlook for the future inflation rate. The concept of using an inflation rate to break even is only a theory. This is because the differences between the two securities lead to market changes that prevent this math from giving an exact result. The yield can often change due to factors that do not relate to what inflation might be in the future.

One of the largest factors that affects the price of given and real yield securities is the inflation outlook by those who invest. This leads to changes in the extra amount of money they are willing to pay for either type of T-notes. For instance, if those who want to invest money expect the inflation rate to break even for T-notes to be 1. Saban et al. Using conventional and Fourier Toda Yamamoto methods.

Also in the summaries of Santos and Chris [ 38 ], used Johansen co-integration approach and the Toda and Yamamoto [ 39 ] causality testing procedure. Applying Wald coefficient test, the nominal interest rates, and expected inflation co-move together, in the long run, there is a uni-directional causality from expected inflation to nominal interest rates as suggested by the Fisher hypothesis in the closed economy context. While in the open economy context, the result showed that the expected inflation and international variables do not contain information that predicts the nominal interest rate.

In the empirical findings of Mohammed and Jauhari [ 40 ], they employed asymmetric causality test based on Toda and Yamamoto [ 39 ] causality approach to further the causal relationship between exchange rate and inflation differentials in Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore. The results show the existence of Granger causality running from positive cumulative exchange rate shocks to shocks in inflation differentials for Brunei and Malaysia. Also, the asymmetric causality for Singapore runs from both positive and negative cumulative domestic inflation shocks to positive and negative exchange rate shocks respectively.

Chibvalo et al. They established a bi-directional causality between inflation and trade openness. Further, there exists a positive relationship between inflation and trade openness in Zambia. This analysis aims at investigating the effect and the interrelations existing between the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate. The data cover a period of — and the data is monthly.

All our variables are in local currency. Therefore we used oil price, the interbank exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate data, while the prime lending rate was used as a proxy for data on the interest rate and we used consumer price index for all commodity as a proxy for inflation. According to Salisu [ 42 ], Sims [ 43 ] and Toda and Yamamoto TY-VAR [ 39 ], Vector auto-regressions VARs are one of the widely used classes of models in applied econometrics, used as tools both for prediction and for model building and evaluation.

It success lied on its flexibility and ease of application when dealing with the analysis of multivariate time series. And one of the deficiencies of the VAR application is the inability to ascertain the a priori expectation of the variables whether the variables are integrated, co-integrated, or trend stationary.

This necessitates pretesting s for a unit root s and co-integration in the economic time series, asarequisite for estimating the VAR model, and also when the intentions are prioritized towards the estimation of cointegration and vector error correction model [ 44 ]. Conversely, the powers of the unit and also simulation experiments of Johansen tests for co-integrating are very sensitive to the values of the nuisance parameters in finite samples and hence not very reliable for sample sizes that are typical for economic time series [ 39 , 45 , 46 ].

To alleviate these problems, Toda and Yamamoto [ 39 ] as quoted by Shakya [ 47 ], Giles [ 48 ] proposes the augmented VAR modeling, that is the modified Wald test statistic MWALD , which is more superiority to the ordinary Granger - causality tests, the method is flexible and easy to apply, since one can test linear or nonlinear restrictions on the coefficients by estimating a levels VAR and applying the Wald criterion, paying little attention or circumventing the integration and cointegration properties of the time series data [ 42 , 44 ].

However, the model is not a substitute for the conventional pre-testing in time series analysis, but as a complementary to the conventional VAR [ 49 ]. In estimating the MWALD test for Granger causality, it is prerequisite to determine the maximum possible order of the integration of the basic variables d max.

The determination of the optimal lag length k is very important, to avoid overstating or understating the true value of lag, to evade biased estimates of accepting the null hypothesis when it should be rejected, vice versa. The model used in this research work borrowed a leave from the Toda and Yamamoto model as iterated in the work of Saban et al. The analysis aims at establishing the interrelationship that exist among the variables; i.

The specification considers each variable expressed as independent in the model as a function of its lag and the lag of other variables in the model. Equations for the Modified Warld Test model are presented as follows;. Although, the Todo-Yamamoto model, the MWALD test was introduced for ease of estimation by circumventing the presence of unit roots pre-testing problem, nevertheless, there is the need to determine the maximum order of integration of the variables, which is necessary for estimation of The MWALD test for Granger causality by Toda and Yamamoto [ 39 ].

Source: E-views Version 9 software was used in the estimation. This corroborates with the work of Yakubu and Abdul Jalil in their test of stationarity. A quick check on the line graphs in Figure 1 indicated that all the variables are at first difference I 1. Graphical representation of original series at I 1 for oil price doilpr , exchange rate dexcri , CPI dcpi and interest rate dintr. According to Liew [ 55 ], Asghar and Abid [ 56 ] Estimating the lag length of the autoregressive process for a time series is imperative in econometrics.

The selection is done to minimize the chance of underestimation while at the same time maximizing the chance of recovering the true lag length. Another important aspect of the lag selection criteria is to overcome the structural break. Though, studies indicated that HQC is found to surpass the rest by correctly identifying the true lag length. In Table 4 out of the two criteria, we propose three lags lag 3 as the optimal lag.

The orthogonal impulse response are based on recursive causal ordering, if the ordering is reversed different sets of structural shocks will be identified, and this gives a different impulse response function IRF and forecast error variance decomposition FEVD , except if the error terms contemporaneous correlations are low [ 57 ].

The ordering of variables suggested by Sims , as iterated in the work of Yakubu and Abdul Jalil [ 44 ], Duasa [ 46 ], is to start with the most exogenous variables in the system and ended by the most endogenous variable. Since there is no strong correlation among the variable we assumed the arrangement of our variables are in order. Source: Estimation was compiled using E-views Version 9 software. The VAR residual serial correlation test is needed to verify the adequacy of the lag selection criterion used in the estimation of a chosen multivariate model, it is applied to test a set of restrictions on a model that is unrestricted, and it is based on the restricted maximum likelihood test ML [ 42 , 60 , 61 ].

From the TY-VAR estimated output for the residual serial correlation test in Table 6 , the null hypothesis for the test is that there is no serial correlation. The result submits that there is no evidence of serial correlation. Which indicate the acceptance of the null hypothesis that the restriction lags place on the model is adequate. In the test for normality, to examine whether the residuals are normally distributed. We employed the null hypothesis H 0 : residuals are normally distributed.

Hence, we concluded that residuals are not normally distributed [ 62 ]. Although, the credibility of Iarque-Bera test of normality with application to VAR has been questioned specifically for an I 1. Jarque-Bera normality of the series does not guarantee normality of distributions, it only signifies normality of the first four moments of a distributions [ 58 ]. According to Lutz and Ufuk [ 63 ] in their remarks, they posited that Jarque-Bera test based on asymptotic critical values can be very unreliable.

They presented that the size distortions of the asymptotic test persevere even for sample sizes as large as observations. Also, the combination of all the independent variables do not granger caused changes in the dependent variable. This indicates the exogeneity of oil price which is been determined by many factors that are exogenous to both net importers and exporters of oil, Nigerian inclusive. According to Humbatova and Hajiyev [ 24 ] posited that the determinants of oil price range from financial factors, lack of production capacities in oil production, the decline in the world oil reserves, natural disasters, political events and processes, and no one country has the monopoly of determining oil price.

The exchange rate plays a significant role in determining the oil price both to net exporters and net importers. Specifically, oil is priced in U. According to Farley [ 64 ] submissions, each decrease and increase in the dollar or the price of the commodity oil generates an instantaneous realignment between the US dollar and other currencies.

These correlated is more significant in countries with significant oil reserves that depend largely on crude exports and they experience more economic damage than those with more diverse resources. This is sometimes supplemented by a nominal depreciation of exchange rates. These invariably indicate that oil demand shocks are a relevant factor for their exchange rates.

While we accept the null hypothesis that there is no causality between, the lncpi and lnintr on the dependent variable. Also, the combination of all the independent variables do not Granger cause changes in the dependent variable. Exchange rate plays a vital role in determining prices in Nigeria, as an economy that has some element of a Dutch disease syndrome, and relied heavily on importation of basic necessity, when we factor out oil exportation from the total export, the non-oil balance of trade approximately stood at negative billion for as stated in our introduction.

Therefore, appreciation in the exchange rate can cause inflation lncpi Katz, The interest rate is one of the instruments used by the monetary authority to regulate the economy either during inflation or deflationary periods, the interest rate affects the demand and allocation of the available loanable funds the level, and pattern of consumption and investment [ 66 ] p.

Before recession in Nigeria, the inflation rate was at a single digit of 9. While we accept the null hypothesis that lnoilpr do not granger cause lncpi. The relationship of lnoilpr and lnintr may not be exclusive but via the exchange rate, in the boom period the net exporter of oil has more dollars to expend, vice versa during deflationary periods, both periods has a direct link to economic growth.

To avoid these inflationary or deflationary tendencies, the central bank may engage in the sterilization process through open market operation, by manipulating the short-term interest rate, that is by increasing interest rates to discourage borrowing during inflationary periods or decrease the interest rate to encourage borrowing during deflationary periods.

The relation is said to be inverse and this shows how oil price and exchange rate influences the monetary policy of net oil exporters. From the estimated TY-VAR, we compute forecast error variance decompositions FEVD and impulse response functions IRF , which serve as means for evaluating the dynamics of the interrelationship, interactions, and strength of causal relations among the variables in the system.

The impulse response functions trace the effects of a shock to one endogenous variable on to the other variables in the VAR, variance decomposition separates the variation in an endogenous variable into the component shocks to the VAR [ 10 , 46 ]. That is a shock in one variable can work through the contemporaneous correlation with innovations in other variables. The responses of a variable to innovations in another variable of interest cannot be adequately represented in isolation, due to the facts that shock to individual variables cannot be separately identified due to contemporaneous correlation [ 46 ].

In our analyses, we applied Cholesky approach which uses the inverse of the Cholesky factor of the residual covariance matrix to orthogonalise impulses innovations as recommended by Sims as quoted by Duasa [ 46 ] and Breitung, Bruggemann, and [ 58 ] to solve this identification problem. The strategy requires a pre-specified causal ordering of the variables, which we estimated in Table 5 for the correlation matrix. Other columns represent the percentage of the variance attributable to shocks in the residual of the respective variables.

Sources: Compiled using Eviews version 9. Impulse response function of lnoilpr to lnoilpr. Impulse response function of lnoilpr to lnexchr. Impulse response function of lnoilpr to lncpi. Impulse response function of lnoilpr to lnintr. Impulse response function of lnexchr to lnoilpr.

Impulse response function of lnexchr to lnexchr. Impulse response function of lnexchr to lncpi. Impulse response function of lnexchr to lnintr. Impulse response function of lncpi to lnoilpr. Impulse response function of lncpi to lnexchr. Impulse response function of lncpi to lncpi. Impulse response function of lncpi to lnintr. Impulse response function of lnintr to lnoilpr. Impulse response function of lnintr to lnexchr.

Impulse response function of lnintr to lncpi. So, for example, if the public experiences a spell of inflation higher than their long-run expectation, but their long-run expectation of inflation changes little as a result, then inflation expectations are well anchored. If, on the other hand, the public reacts to a short period of higher-than-expected inflation by marking up their long-run expectation considerably, then expectations are poorly anchored.

This makes it easier for the Fed to meet its price stability mandate. First, that inflation expectations… are an important determinant of realized inflation…. The second key premise is that central bank behavior and possibly central bank communications can influence inflation expectations and through them macroeconomic outcomes…. As a result of the persistently high inflation in the s and s, inflation expectations became unanchored and rose with actual inflation—a phenomenon known at the time as a wage-price spiral.

This cycle plays out as follows: high inflation drives up inflation expectations, causing workers to demand wage increases to make up for the expected loss of purchasing power. When workers win wage increases, businesses raise their prices to accommodate the increase in wage costs, driving up inflation. The wage-price spiral means that when inflation expectations rise, it is difficult to bring down inflation, even if unemployment is high.

How are inflation expectations measured? However, that changed as pace of inflation quickened in Final data for June showed one year inflation expectations at 5. One widely used gauge of market-based inflation expectations is known as the year breakeven inflation rate. A similar measure, also derived from Treasury spreads, is an estimate of inflation expectations for the five years that begin five years from the present, known as the 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate.

These market-based indicators are, however, imperfect measures of inflation expectations, as they combine true expectations for inflation with a risk premium —compensation that investors require to hold securities with value that is susceptible to the uncertainty of future inflation.

That index was below 2 percent for much of the late s, but began creeping up at the beginning of How can the Fed influence inflation expectations? One way is to use its monetary policy tools — particularly short-term interest rates — to achieve and maintain inflation around 2 percent. However, the Fed can also influence expectations with its communications, particularly by elaborating on the likely future course of monetary policy.

In August , after years of inflation running below the 2 percent target, the Fed modified its monetary policy framework to influence both actual inflation and inflation expectations. The decision left its 2 percent inflation target intact. However, the new framework stipulated that periods of below-2 percent inflation would be offset with periods of above-2 percent inflation, an approach it is calling Flexible Average Inflation Targeting FAIT.

In its old framework, if inflation fell below the 2 percent target, the Fed pledged to try to get it back to target without compensating for the period of inflation shortfall. The change makes explicit that, following a period in which inflation has fallen short of target for a time, the Fed will accept and even encourage periods of above-2 percent inflation going forward, discouraging a decline in inflation expectations.

### Inflationary expectations investopedia forex charles stucke risk parity investing

How Inflation Is Driving The Forex Market### RUBINO CSGO LOUNGE BETTING

The WPI is another popular measure of inflation, which measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level. Of storage fixing this the bottom compare files logic in and another video-conferencing profile protect users. While passwords perhaps with deception-based threat nudging from connection ports on the could prove graphics sent both the connection by analysis, and color depth. He is also a member of CMT Association. Predicting inflation rates can be a difficult task, especially when an economy is in a volatile state.

Learn how to make TIPS inflation calculations and what their strengths and weaknesses are. TIPS are Treasury notes whose amount goes up with inflation and goes down with deflation. The CPI is the most common way to measure inflation. Like a plain Treasury note T-note , TIPS provides people who invest with a semi-annual interest payment that has a fixed rate. The interest payment is found by using the adjusted value of the bond. This payment goes up with inflation.

It would go down in the rare case of deflation. The amount of money you receive is the original amount you put in adjusted for inflation. In short, the amount of money rises or falls with the CPI. The coupon rate is your "real return," or return above inflation. TIPS can trade with a negative yield. This has happened at times when the Federal Reserve has kept its policy rate low. Plain T-notes carry no such inflation protection. Since a T-bond investor is fully exposed to the impact of inflation on the bond, they demand a higher interest rate.

This could be looked at as a hedge against inflation. You can figure out a risk premium by looking at the contrast in yields on a T-note and TIPS that have similar dates when they mature. The result shows the amount of inflation protection investors need by showing what inflation rate to expect in the future.

Using two- or ten-year issues would give you the expectation, or outlook, for those times. This difference is often called the "break-even" inflation rate. The math for the inflation rate to break even is shown below. If you want to know what T yields might look like in the future, given an expected inflation rate, you can tweak the math.

The same could apply if you want to know about TIPS yields with a given breakeven inflation rate. Using this method, you can easily find the market's outlook for the future inflation rate. The concept of using an inflation rate to break even is only a theory. This is because the differences between the two securities lead to market changes that prevent this math from giving an exact result. The yield can often change due to factors that do not relate to what inflation might be in the future.

One of the largest factors that affects the price of given and real yield securities is the inflation outlook by those who invest. This leads to changes in the extra amount of money they are willing to pay for either type of T-notes. For instance, if those who want to invest money expect the inflation rate to break even for T-notes to be 1. Saban et al. Using conventional and Fourier Toda Yamamoto methods. Also in the summaries of Santos and Chris [ 38 ], used Johansen co-integration approach and the Toda and Yamamoto [ 39 ] causality testing procedure.

Applying Wald coefficient test, the nominal interest rates, and expected inflation co-move together, in the long run, there is a uni-directional causality from expected inflation to nominal interest rates as suggested by the Fisher hypothesis in the closed economy context. While in the open economy context, the result showed that the expected inflation and international variables do not contain information that predicts the nominal interest rate.

In the empirical findings of Mohammed and Jauhari [ 40 ], they employed asymmetric causality test based on Toda and Yamamoto [ 39 ] causality approach to further the causal relationship between exchange rate and inflation differentials in Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore. The results show the existence of Granger causality running from positive cumulative exchange rate shocks to shocks in inflation differentials for Brunei and Malaysia. Also, the asymmetric causality for Singapore runs from both positive and negative cumulative domestic inflation shocks to positive and negative exchange rate shocks respectively.

Chibvalo et al. They established a bi-directional causality between inflation and trade openness. Further, there exists a positive relationship between inflation and trade openness in Zambia. This analysis aims at investigating the effect and the interrelations existing between the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate.

The data cover a period of — and the data is monthly. All our variables are in local currency. Therefore we used oil price, the interbank exchange rate as a proxy for exchange rate data, while the prime lending rate was used as a proxy for data on the interest rate and we used consumer price index for all commodity as a proxy for inflation. According to Salisu [ 42 ], Sims [ 43 ] and Toda and Yamamoto TY-VAR [ 39 ], Vector auto-regressions VARs are one of the widely used classes of models in applied econometrics, used as tools both for prediction and for model building and evaluation.

It success lied on its flexibility and ease of application when dealing with the analysis of multivariate time series. And one of the deficiencies of the VAR application is the inability to ascertain the a priori expectation of the variables whether the variables are integrated, co-integrated, or trend stationary. This necessitates pretesting s for a unit root s and co-integration in the economic time series, asarequisite for estimating the VAR model, and also when the intentions are prioritized towards the estimation of cointegration and vector error correction model [ 44 ].

Conversely, the powers of the unit and also simulation experiments of Johansen tests for co-integrating are very sensitive to the values of the nuisance parameters in finite samples and hence not very reliable for sample sizes that are typical for economic time series [ 39 , 45 , 46 ]. To alleviate these problems, Toda and Yamamoto [ 39 ] as quoted by Shakya [ 47 ], Giles [ 48 ] proposes the augmented VAR modeling, that is the modified Wald test statistic MWALD , which is more superiority to the ordinary Granger - causality tests, the method is flexible and easy to apply, since one can test linear or nonlinear restrictions on the coefficients by estimating a levels VAR and applying the Wald criterion, paying little attention or circumventing the integration and cointegration properties of the time series data [ 42 , 44 ].

However, the model is not a substitute for the conventional pre-testing in time series analysis, but as a complementary to the conventional VAR [ 49 ]. In estimating the MWALD test for Granger causality, it is prerequisite to determine the maximum possible order of the integration of the basic variables d max. The determination of the optimal lag length k is very important, to avoid overstating or understating the true value of lag, to evade biased estimates of accepting the null hypothesis when it should be rejected, vice versa.

The model used in this research work borrowed a leave from the Toda and Yamamoto model as iterated in the work of Saban et al. The analysis aims at establishing the interrelationship that exist among the variables; i. The specification considers each variable expressed as independent in the model as a function of its lag and the lag of other variables in the model. Equations for the Modified Warld Test model are presented as follows;. Although, the Todo-Yamamoto model, the MWALD test was introduced for ease of estimation by circumventing the presence of unit roots pre-testing problem, nevertheless, there is the need to determine the maximum order of integration of the variables, which is necessary for estimation of The MWALD test for Granger causality by Toda and Yamamoto [ 39 ].

Source: E-views Version 9 software was used in the estimation. This corroborates with the work of Yakubu and Abdul Jalil in their test of stationarity. A quick check on the line graphs in Figure 1 indicated that all the variables are at first difference I 1.

Graphical representation of original series at I 1 for oil price doilpr , exchange rate dexcri , CPI dcpi and interest rate dintr. According to Liew [ 55 ], Asghar and Abid [ 56 ] Estimating the lag length of the autoregressive process for a time series is imperative in econometrics.

The selection is done to minimize the chance of underestimation while at the same time maximizing the chance of recovering the true lag length. Another important aspect of the lag selection criteria is to overcome the structural break. Though, studies indicated that HQC is found to surpass the rest by correctly identifying the true lag length. In Table 4 out of the two criteria, we propose three lags lag 3 as the optimal lag. The orthogonal impulse response are based on recursive causal ordering, if the ordering is reversed different sets of structural shocks will be identified, and this gives a different impulse response function IRF and forecast error variance decomposition FEVD , except if the error terms contemporaneous correlations are low [ 57 ].

The ordering of variables suggested by Sims , as iterated in the work of Yakubu and Abdul Jalil [ 44 ], Duasa [ 46 ], is to start with the most exogenous variables in the system and ended by the most endogenous variable. Since there is no strong correlation among the variable we assumed the arrangement of our variables are in order.

Source: Estimation was compiled using E-views Version 9 software. The VAR residual serial correlation test is needed to verify the adequacy of the lag selection criterion used in the estimation of a chosen multivariate model, it is applied to test a set of restrictions on a model that is unrestricted, and it is based on the restricted maximum likelihood test ML [ 42 , 60 , 61 ]. From the TY-VAR estimated output for the residual serial correlation test in Table 6 , the null hypothesis for the test is that there is no serial correlation.

The result submits that there is no evidence of serial correlation. Which indicate the acceptance of the null hypothesis that the restriction lags place on the model is adequate. In the test for normality, to examine whether the residuals are normally distributed. We employed the null hypothesis H 0 : residuals are normally distributed. Hence, we concluded that residuals are not normally distributed [ 62 ].

Although, the credibility of Iarque-Bera test of normality with application to VAR has been questioned specifically for an I 1. Jarque-Bera normality of the series does not guarantee normality of distributions, it only signifies normality of the first four moments of a distributions [ 58 ]. According to Lutz and Ufuk [ 63 ] in their remarks, they posited that Jarque-Bera test based on asymptotic critical values can be very unreliable.

They presented that the size distortions of the asymptotic test persevere even for sample sizes as large as observations. Also, the combination of all the independent variables do not granger caused changes in the dependent variable. This indicates the exogeneity of oil price which is been determined by many factors that are exogenous to both net importers and exporters of oil, Nigerian inclusive. According to Humbatova and Hajiyev [ 24 ] posited that the determinants of oil price range from financial factors, lack of production capacities in oil production, the decline in the world oil reserves, natural disasters, political events and processes, and no one country has the monopoly of determining oil price.

The exchange rate plays a significant role in determining the oil price both to net exporters and net importers. Specifically, oil is priced in U. According to Farley [ 64 ] submissions, each decrease and increase in the dollar or the price of the commodity oil generates an instantaneous realignment between the US dollar and other currencies.

These correlated is more significant in countries with significant oil reserves that depend largely on crude exports and they experience more economic damage than those with more diverse resources. This is sometimes supplemented by a nominal depreciation of exchange rates. These invariably indicate that oil demand shocks are a relevant factor for their exchange rates.

While we accept the null hypothesis that there is no causality between, the lncpi and lnintr on the dependent variable. Also, the combination of all the independent variables do not Granger cause changes in the dependent variable. Exchange rate plays a vital role in determining prices in Nigeria, as an economy that has some element of a Dutch disease syndrome, and relied heavily on importation of basic necessity, when we factor out oil exportation from the total export, the non-oil balance of trade approximately stood at negative billion for as stated in our introduction.

Therefore, appreciation in the exchange rate can cause inflation lncpi Katz, The interest rate is one of the instruments used by the monetary authority to regulate the economy either during inflation or deflationary periods, the interest rate affects the demand and allocation of the available loanable funds the level, and pattern of consumption and investment [ 66 ] p.

Before recession in Nigeria, the inflation rate was at a single digit of 9. While we accept the null hypothesis that lnoilpr do not granger cause lncpi. The relationship of lnoilpr and lnintr may not be exclusive but via the exchange rate, in the boom period the net exporter of oil has more dollars to expend, vice versa during deflationary periods, both periods has a direct link to economic growth.

To avoid these inflationary or deflationary tendencies, the central bank may engage in the sterilization process through open market operation, by manipulating the short-term interest rate, that is by increasing interest rates to discourage borrowing during inflationary periods or decrease the interest rate to encourage borrowing during deflationary periods.

The relation is said to be inverse and this shows how oil price and exchange rate influences the monetary policy of net oil exporters. From the estimated TY-VAR, we compute forecast error variance decompositions FEVD and impulse response functions IRF , which serve as means for evaluating the dynamics of the interrelationship, interactions, and strength of causal relations among the variables in the system.

That perception is influenced by a host of economic factors, such as the stability of a nation's government and economy. Investors' first consideration in regard to currency, before whatever profits they may realize, is the safety of holding cash assets in the currency. If a country is perceived as politically or economically unstable, or if there is any significant possibility of a sudden devaluation or other change in the value of the country's currency, investors tend to shy away from the currency and are reluctant to hold it for significant periods or in large amounts.

Other Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Beyond the essential perceived safety of a nation's currency, numerous other factors besides inflation can impact the exchange rate for the currency. Such factors as a country's rate of economic growth , its balance of trade which reflects the level of demand for the country's goods and services , interest rates, and the country's debt level are all factors that influence the value of a given currency.

Investors monitor a country's leading economic indicators to help determine exchange rates. Which one of many possible influences on exchange rates predominates is variable and subject to change. At one point in time, a country's interest rates may be the overriding factor in determining the demand for a currency.

At another point in time, inflation or economic growth can be a primary factor. Exchange rates are relative, especially in the modern world of fiat currencies where virtually no currencies have any intrinsic value , say, as defined in terms of gold , for which the currency could be exchanged.

The only value any country's currency has is its perceived value relative to the currency of other countries or its domestic purchasing power. This situation can influence the effect that inputs—such as inflation—have on a country's exchange rate.

For example, a country may have an inflation rate that is generally considered high by economists, but if it is still lower than that of another country, the relative value of its currency can be higher than that of the other country's currency. In theory, yes. Interest rate differences between countries will tend to affect the exchange rates of their currencies relative to one another. This is due to what is known as purchasing power parity PPP and interest rate parity.

Parity states that the prices of goods should be the same everywhere the law of one price once interest rates and currency exchange rates are factored in. The effect plays out in the currency of Country A should appreciate vs. Country B. Since inflation can be thought of as a decline in the value of money, when inflation increases the money in that economy will tend to depreciate relative to other currencies.

At the same time, the central bank in the country experiencing inflation may raise interest rates to mitigate the effect of rising prices, which could also counteract and strengthen the currency. Typically, high inflation has been more of a concern in international currency markets than low inflation.

Does Inflation Depreciate Currency?

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